BAOFENG ENERGY(600989) 华创证券·2024-11-05 06:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 20.28 CNY, reflecting a 12x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 24.27 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.54 billion CNY, up 16.6% year-on-year [1]. - The third quarter saw a revenue of 7.38 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decrease in net profit of 24.6% [1]. - The report highlights the impact of maintenance on production and sales in the polyethylene and EVA segments, with a slight decline in sales volumes [1]. - The fourth quarter is expected to see improvements in the olefin segment as maintenance impacts are eliminated, and the dual coke segment is anticipated to improve due to recent policy stimuli [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 24.27 billion CNY, with a net profit of 4.54 billion CNY, and a non-recurring net profit of 4.91 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 19%, 16.6%, and 18.4% respectively [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company reported a revenue of 7.38 billion CNY, with a net profit of 1.23 billion CNY, showing a significant decline compared to the previous quarter [1]. Production and Sales Insights - The olefin segment experienced a slight decline in production due to maintenance, with polyethylene sales at 250,500 tons and polypropylene at 252,100 tons for Q3 [1]. - The report notes a decrease in sales prices for polyethylene and EVA, with the average selling price for polyethylene at 7,023 CNY/ton, down 2.57% year-on-year [1]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the fourth quarter will see the elimination of maintenance impacts in the olefin segment, with stable price margins expected [1]. - The dual coke segment is projected to improve due to favorable government policies and high steel production levels, with a potential profit increase of 80 million CNY for every 100 CNY increase in dual coke prices [1][2]. Financial Projections - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 6.535 billion CNY, 12.43 billion CNY, and 14.014 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [2][3].