pingmei coal(601666) 中泰证券·2024-11-05 06:10Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) Rating [1] Core Views - Q3 performance exceeded expectations due to cost reductions, with a significant drop in coal production costs offsetting the decline in coal prices [1] - The company announced a share repurchase plan and an employee stock ownership plan, which are expected to enhance shareholder value and employee incentives [1] - Despite a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit, the company's Q3 results showed resilience with a sequential improvement in net profit [1] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - 2024 Q3 revenue was RMB 7.065 billion, down 0.87% YoY and 11.80% QoQ [1] - 2024 Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 652 million, down 27.81% YoY but up 0.03% QoQ [1] - 2024 Q3 operating cash flow was RMB 1.305 billion, up 251.12% YoY but down 30.04% QoQ [1] Coal Business - Q3 coal production was 6.65 million tons, down 10.82% YoY and 9.60% QoQ [1] - Q3 coal sales volume was 6.59 million tons, down 12.86% YoY and 0.29% QoQ [1] - Q3 coal price was RMB 918/ton, up 5.56% YoY but down 9.74% QoQ [1] - Q3 coal production cost was RMB 608/ton, up 5.53% YoY but down 13.83% QoQ [1] Share Repurchase and Employee Stock Ownership Plan - The company plans to repurchase shares at a price not exceeding RMB 14.36/share, with a total repurchase amount between RMB 500 million and RMB 1 billion [1] - The employee stock ownership plan involves approximately 2,002 employees, with unlocking conditions tied to annual production targets [1] Financial Forecasts Income Statement - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 30.644 billion, down 3% YoY [1] - 2024E net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at RMB 2.822 billion, down 30% YoY [1] - 2024E EPS is projected at RMB 1.14, with a P/E ratio of 9.0x [1] Balance Sheet - 2024E total assets are projected at RMB 81.337 billion, up from RMB 77.685 billion in 2023A [3] - 2024E total liabilities are projected at RMB 51.359 billion, up from RMB 48.579 billion in 2023A [3] Cash Flow Statement - 2024E operating cash flow is projected at RMB 9.001 billion, up from RMB 6.110 billion in 2023A [3] - 2024E capital expenditures are projected at RMB 1.255 billion, down from RMB 7.769 billion in 2023A [3] Valuation and Ratios - 2024E P/E ratio is 9.0x, with a P/B ratio of 0.9x [1] - 2024E ROE is projected at 9%, down from 14% in 2023A [1] - 2024E debt-to-equity ratio is projected at 98.4%, up from 93.5% in 2023A [3] Industry and Market Comparison - The company's stock performance is compared against industry and market indices, with a focus on relative performance over the next 6-12 months [4][5][6]