China Express(002928) Guohai Securities·2024-11-05 07:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huaxia Airlines (002928) as of November 4, 2024 [2][5][8] Core Insights - Huaxia Airlines has shown a significant recovery in operations, with a 33.81% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 5.154 billion yuan, and a net profit of 307 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss of 697 million yuan in the same period last year [2][3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.943 billion yuan, up 18.73% year-on-year, and a net profit of 280 million yuan, reflecting a remarkable growth of 411.92% compared to the previous year [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Huaxia Airlines reported a revenue of 5.154 billion yuan, a 33.81% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 307 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 697 million yuan in the previous year [2][3] - In Q3 2024, the total ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) increased by 25.68% and total RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) grew by 30.97%, leading to a total passenger load factor of 83.51%, an increase of 3.37 percentage points year-on-year [3] Cost and Profitability - The unit cost and expense ratios have improved significantly, with the unit ASK cost decreasing by 5.45% year-on-year to 0.427 yuan per seat kilometer [3] - Other income rose sharply to 292 million yuan in Q3 2024, a 116.30% increase year-on-year, contributing to the improvement in net profit margin, which reached 14.41%, up 11.05 percentage points year-on-year [3] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for Huaxia Airlines are projected to be 6.756 billion yuan, 8.080 billion yuan, and 9.093 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits expected to be 475 million yuan, 828 million yuan, and 1.247 billion yuan for the same years [3][6][8] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated to be 22.82, 13.11, and 8.71 respectively, indicating a favorable outlook for the company in the regional aviation market [3][6][8]