山西汾酒：2024年三季报点评：调整节奏，稳健发展

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 31.358 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.25%, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 11.350 billion yuan, up 20.34% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 8.611 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, and a net profit of 2.940 billion yuan, up 10.36% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue growth of high-end liquor in Q3 accelerated compared to Q2, with high-end liquor and other liquor revenues for the first three quarters at 22.614 billion yuan and 8.638 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 14.26% and 26.87% [1]. - The company maintained double-digit growth in both domestic and foreign markets, with domestic and foreign revenues for the first three quarters at 11.900 billion yuan and 19.353 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.58% and 21.44% [1]. - The number of distributors increased to 4,368 by the end of Q3 2024, with a net increase of 172 from the previous quarter and 428 from the beginning of the year [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's net profit margin was 36.20%, and the gross profit margin was 76.03%, with a slight decrease in the tax and additional charges as a percentage of total revenue to 15.19% [2]. - In Q3 2024, the net profit margin was 34.14%, and the gross profit margin was 74.29%, with the tax and additional charges as a percentage of total revenue decreasing to 14.62% [2]. - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 12.339 billion yuan, 14.084 billion yuan, and 15.943 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 18.21%, 14.14%, and 13.20% [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides projected revenue figures for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 37.230 billion yuan, 42.371 billion yuan, and 47.832 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 16.60%, 13.81%, and 12.89% [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 21, 18, and 16 times, respectively [3][4].