科伦药业：业绩稳健增长，SKB264获批在即

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422 SZ) [4][6] Core Views - Kelun Pharmaceutical achieved steady growth in Q3 2024 with revenue of 4 96 billion yuan (+0 4% YoY) and net profit of 670 million yuan (+19 9% YoY) [1] - The company's gross margin and net margin in Q3 2024 were 49 4% and 14 2% respectively with significant optimization in expense ratios [1] - SKB264 a core innovative drug is expected to receive approval soon with multiple clinical trials underway globally [2] - The company's international cooperation with Merck continues to progress with a 37 5 million USD payment received for SKB571 [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024 Kelun Pharmaceutical achieved revenue of 16 79 billion yuan (+6 6% YoY) and net profit of 2 47 billion yuan (+25 9% YoY) [1] - The company's sales expense ratio decreased significantly to 14 0% in Q3 2024 (-7 3pct YoY) due to the implementation of national drug procurement policies [1] - Non infusion drug sales reached 2 02 billion yuan in H1 2024 (+6 38% YoY) [2] Business Segments - The large infusion business remains the industry leader with stable profit levels expected [2] - The antibiotic intermediate business through Sichuan Kelun achieved revenue of 1 26 billion yuan (+8 3% YoY) and net profit of 310 million yuan (+24 2% YoY) in Q3 2024 [2] - The generic drug business focusing on anti infection CNS endocrine metabolism and andrology is expected to stabilize [2] Innovation Pipeline - SKB264 has multiple indications under review in China including TNBC and NSCLC with global phase 3 clinical trials initiated by Merck [2] - Other innovative drugs such as A166 SKB315 SKB410 and SKB518 are progressing through clinical trials [2] Financial Forecast - The report adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 3 04/3 47/3 99 billion yuan respectively [4] - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9 7% from 2024 to 2026 reaching 28 30 billion yuan by 2026 [5] - EPS is projected to increase from 1 90 yuan in 2024 to 2 49 yuan in 2026 [5]