CYPC(600900) 华源证券·2024-11-05 08:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations with a net profit of 16.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.81%, surpassing the forecast of 15-15.5 billion yuan [1] - The company achieved a net profit of 28.025 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.20% [1] - Revenue growth was driven by improved water inflow and a favorable power generation structure leading to higher average electricity prices [1] - Financial expenses and investment income contributed positively to the growth momentum, with interest expenses decreasing significantly [1] - The company's stock price performance is closely linked to credit spreads, indicating a need to monitor changes in credit conditions [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1, the company generated 120.618 billion kWh of electricity, a 16.86% increase year-on-year, while Q3 saw a generation of 115.196 billion kWh, up 15.05% year-on-year [1] - Revenue for H1 grew by 12.38%, while Q3 revenue increased by 17.27% year-on-year, primarily due to higher electricity prices [1] - The company’s financial expenses for H1 were 5.704 billion yuan, down 0.676 billion yuan from the previous year, exceeding market expectations [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 33.59 billion, 35.235 billion, and 36.982 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 19, and 18 [3] - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of 16.13% in 2024, increasing slightly in subsequent years [3]