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兴森科技:2024年三季报点评:FCBGA短期影响利润,长期受益国产替代有望持续放量【勘误版】

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's short-term profits are under pressure due to significant investments in FCBGA packaging substrates, while long-term benefits from domestic substitution are expected to continue to grow [2][4] - The semiconductor business is progressing steadily, with rapid revenue growth in BT substrates driven by the recovery of the storage chip industry and increased market share from major storage clients [3] - The company is focusing on enhancing IC packaging substrate technology, which has substantial growth potential, particularly in the context of AI chip development [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the company achieved total revenue of 4.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, but reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -30 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 117% [2] - The revenue for Q3 alone was 1.47 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -50 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 130% [2] - The forecast for total revenue is expected to grow from 5.36 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.06 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 13.09% [1][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline significantly from 211 million yuan in 2023 to 32 million yuan in 2024, before rebounding to 456 million yuan in 2026 [1][10] Valuation Metrics - The current market valuation corresponds to a P/E ratio of 467.10 for 2024, which is expected to decrease to 32.75 by 2026 [1][11] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 17.71 billion yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 3.49 [6][11]