恒逸石化：3Q24公司盈利短期承压，静待炼化板块盈利修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengyi Petrochemical, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [18]. Core Views - The company's profitability is under short-term pressure, particularly in the refining sector, but a recovery in profitability is anticipated [1][6]. - The polyester industry is expected to benefit from a slowdown in production capacity growth and an increase in demand from the textile and apparel sector [4][9]. - The Southeast Asian refined oil market is projected to maintain a favorable outlook due to supply shortages, which will benefit the company's refining segment [7][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 94.815 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.61%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 231 million, an increase of 11.93% [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.05%, up by 0.17 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 13.44% year-on-year, amounting to 485 million [3]. Industry Insights - The textile and apparel industry is showing signs of recovery, which is expected to boost demand for polyester products [4][6]. - The actual new polyester filament capacity added in the first half of 2024 was only 300,000 tons, significantly lower than the 3.85 million tons added in 2023, indicating a slowdown in capacity growth [4]. - The textile and apparel export sector remains stable, with cumulative exports reaching 222.41 billion USD in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase [4]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 142.625 billion, 155.325 billion, and 168.288 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 452 million, 683 million, and 1.092 billion [9]. - The expected EPS for the same years is 0.12, 0.19, and 0.30 [9].