FUNENG CO.,LTD(600483) 华创证券·2024-11-05 09:42Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 14 CNY, compared to the current price of 9.50 CNY [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 was 3.82 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.13% YoY, while the revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 10.485 billion CNY, an increase of 1.22% YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2024 was 585 million CNY, a decrease of 16.6% YoY, while the net profit for the first three quarters was 1.773 billion CNY, an increase of 8.38% YoY [1] - The performance in Q3 was affected by the timing of alternative electricity confirmation and investment income fluctuations, with investment income dropping by 100 million CNY YoY to 285 million CNY [2] - Power generation remained stable overall, with a slight decline in coal-fired power generation due to seasonal factors and power supply-demand dynamics [2] - The company's future growth is supported by its planned capacity expansion in both thermal and renewable energy sectors, with a significant portion of profits coming from renewable energy [2] - The report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 2.944 billion CNY, 3.132 billion CNY, and 3.437 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 12.2%, 6.4%, and 9.7% [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company generated 6.464 billion kWh of electricity, a decrease of 3.51% YoY, with offshore wind, onshore wind, and coal-fired power generation at 598 million kWh, 419 million kWh, and 1.473 billion kWh, respectively [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company generated 17.623 billion kWh of electricity, an increase of 0.37% YoY, with grid-connected electricity at 16.758 billion kWh, up 0.47% YoY [2] - The company's total revenue for 2023 was 14.695 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 15.106 billion CNY in 2024, 15.509 billion CNY in 2025, and 16.336 billion CNY in 2026 [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 2.623 billion CNY in 2023 to 2.944 billion CNY in 2024, 3.132 billion CNY in 2025, and 3.437 billion CNY in 2026 [3] - The company's EPS is projected to increase from 0.99 CNY in 2023 to 1.11 CNY in 2024, 1.18 CNY in 2025, and 1.29 CNY in 2026 [3] Valuation and Market Performance - The company's market capitalization is 25.289 billion CNY, with a total share capital of 2.662 billion shares and a fully diluted share capital of 2.662 billion shares [4] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to be 8x in 2024, 8x in 2025, and 7x in 2026, while the P/B ratio is projected to be 1.0x in 2024, 1.0x in 2025, and 0.9x in 2026 [3] - The company's 12-month high and low prices were 12.14 CNY and 7.90 CNY, respectively [4] Industry and Growth Prospects - The company's growth is driven by its renewable energy projects, particularly offshore wind, which is expected to benefit from industry catalysts and new project launches [2] - The company's profitability is expected to improve, with a projected gross margin of 27.1% in 2024, 28.9% in 2025, and 29.5% in 2026, and a net margin of 23.8% in 2024, 24.6% in 2025, and 25.6% in 2026 [6] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 12.0% in 2023 to 12.2% in 2024, 12.5% in 2025, and 13.1% in 2026 [6]