HONGLU(002541) Guoxin Securities·2024-11-05 11:15Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [3][12]. Core Views - The company's profitability is under pressure due to weak upstream and downstream demand, leading to a slight decline in orders and revenue. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.89 billion yuan, down 6.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 655 million yuan, down 26.3% year-on-year [1]. - The company is increasing its investment in smart transformation, which is expected to enhance product quality and reduce production costs in the long term, thereby strengthening its scale effect [1]. - The report suggests that with the introduction of new counter-cyclical adjustment policies, downstream market demand is expected to recover, which may further improve the company's capacity utilization and sales prices [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company signed new orders worth 21.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw new orders of 7.44 billion yuan, down 4.2% year-on-year [1]. - The average steel price index showed a downward trend, with the company's gross profit margin in the third quarter at 9.21%, down 1.59 percentage points from the previous quarter and down 3.10 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s R&D expenses for the first three quarters reached 510 million yuan, an increase of 18.9% year-on-year, reflecting its commitment to smart manufacturing [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The report has adjusted the revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, predicting operating revenues of 21.88 billion yuan, 23.47 billion yuan, and 25.50 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 24.91 billion yuan, 26.43 billion yuan, and 27.69 billion yuan [1][8]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period have also been revised down to 880 million yuan, 934 million yuan, and 1.021 billion yuan, compared to previous estimates of 1.203 billion yuan, 1.358 billion yuan, and 1.510 billion yuan [1][8]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 11.3, 10.7, and 9.7 respectively [1][6]. - The report indicates a decline in the gross profit margin forecast for 2024-2026 to 10.5% for each year, down from previous estimates of 12.8%, 13.0%, and 13.1% [8][9].