NovelBeam Technology(688677) 西南证券·2024-11-05 11:17Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 50.40 yuan (6 months) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was under short-term pressure, but Q4 shipments are expected to improve [1] - The core product, artificial heart valves, continues to drive growth, with a 42.8% YoY increase in revenue [1] - The company is deepening its cooperation with Stryker, benefiting from the global trend of fluorescence replacing white light in endoscopy [3] - Domestic strategy focuses on multi-category endoscope development and brand building in key medical fields [3] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 0.98 billion yuan, down 9.4% YoY, with net profit of 0.27 billion yuan, down 7.0% YoY [3] - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue was 3.2 billion yuan, down 15.3% YoY, with net profit of 0.97 billion yuan, down 17.6% YoY [3] - Gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 89.7%, up 1.5 percentage points YoY, driven by higher-margin products [1] R&D and Product Pipeline - R&D expenses for Q1-Q3 2024 were 446 million yuan, accounting for 20.2% of revenue [2] - Key products in development include the Renato® and Renatus® heart valve systems, with clinical trials progressing as planned [2] - The company is advancing its pipeline in surgical soft tissue repair, including ophthalmic and vascular biological patches [2] Market and Industry Trends - The global trend of fluorescence replacing white light in endoscopy is creating significant industry opportunities [3] - The company's second-generation 4K endoscope system has shipped over 100 units since its launch in early 2024 [3] - The industry is moving towards multi-technology integration, including fluorescence, 4K, and 3D [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 1.4, 2, and 2.5 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The company is valued at 30x PE for 2025, with a target price of 50.4 yuan [3] Business Segments - Medical devices segment is expected to grow 20%, 32%, and 14% YoY in 2024-2026, with stable pricing [6] - Optical devices segment is expected to decline 16% in 2024 but grow 9.5% in 2025 and 2026 [6] - Endoscope maintenance segment is expected to grow 15% annually from 2024 to 2026 [7]