BNBMPLC(000786) 西南证券·2024-11-05 11:17Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 37.57 CNY over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong operational momentum with a diversified business model, focusing on gypsum board, waterproof materials, and coatings, while expanding its global footprint [1][4]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 20.36 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.15 billion CNY, up 14.1% year-on-year [1]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from favorable policies in the real estate market, which are expected to stimulate demand for its products [1][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a global leader in the gypsum board industry, with a production capacity exceeding 3.5 billion square meters, and ranks among the top in waterproof materials and coatings in China [4][13]. - It operates under a "one body, two wings" strategy, focusing on gypsum boards, waterproof materials, and coatings, while enhancing its brand presence with well-known brands like "Longpai" and "Taishan" [4][23]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.77 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, and a net profit of 930 million CNY, up 8.2% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 30.7% due to soft downstream demand, while the net profit margin fell by 0.6 percentage points to 15.7% [1][17]. Business Diversification - The company has successfully expanded its revenue sources, with gypsum board accounting for 61.4% of total revenue, waterproof materials at 14.1%, and coatings at 13.1% as of H1 2024 [13][22]. - The company is actively pursuing international markets, with production lines established in Uzbekistan and ongoing projects in Thailand and Bosnia [1][13]. Market Outlook - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with policies aimed at supporting housing sales and urban renewal expected to boost demand for construction materials [7][9]. - The company anticipates a recovery in demand for its products, particularly in the waterproof and coatings segments, driven by urban renewal initiatives and the ongoing recovery of the real estate market [19][23]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 2.41 CNY, 2.89 CNY, and 3.40 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13, 11, and 9 [1][22]. - Revenue is expected to grow to 27.22 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, and further growth in subsequent years [22][23].