Chanhen(002895) Guohai Securities·2024-11-05 13:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][7][16] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 1.489 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.98% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.39% [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from high phosphate rock prices and the expansion of its production capacity, which will enhance its resource advantages [4][6][7] - The forecasted revenue for 2024-2026 is 5.5 billion, 6.6 billion, and 7.2 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 995 million, 1.204 billion, and 1.520 billion yuan [7][16] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 318 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.97% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.41% [3][4] - The average price of phosphate rock in Q3 2024 was 1,017 yuan/ton, up 14% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter [2][3] Financial Metrics - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.36%, and a net profit of 672 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.75% [3][4] - The company's return on equity (ROE) for Q3 2024 was 5.56%, an increase of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] Capacity Expansion - The company is in the process of acquiring a 58.5% stake in Qianyuan Geological Exploration Design Co., which will enhance its phosphate mining resources [4][6] - The company has ongoing projects that will gradually increase its phosphate rock production capacity, with expected production from the Laozhaizi phosphate mine starting in 2027 [4][6] Valuation - The company is projected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12, 10, and 8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation as its earnings grow [7][16]