Guangshen Railway(SH:601333) Guohai Securities·2024-11-05 13:25Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year decline in net profit for Q3, but the long-term value is expected to be reassessed positively [1] - The overall market and passenger flow remain strong, with expectations for continued growth in Q4 [6] - Cost increases have impacted performance, but the core asset value is anticipated to be revalued positively [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 20.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, and a net profit of 1.209 billion yuan, up 18.7% year-on-year [5] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 7.105 billion yuan, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 297 million yuan, reflecting a 13.0% decline year-on-year [5] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 6.69%, down 0.88 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to rising costs [4] Market Performance - The company's stock has underperformed relative to the CSI 300 index over the past month and three months, with a decline of 8.7% and 1.9% respectively, but has outperformed over the past year with a gain of 35.9% [3] - The current stock price is 3.45 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 2.45 to 4.16 yuan [3] Future Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 27.284 billion yuan, 28.395 billion yuan, and 29.560 billion yuan, respectively, each reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth [9] - Expected net profits for the same period are 1.281 billion yuan, 1.427 billion yuan, and 1.564 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21%, 11%, and 10% respectively [9] - The report indicates that the company has both value and growth potential in the short, medium, and long term [9]