寒武纪：积极备货传递成长信号

Investment Rating - Buy rating with a first-time coverage [1][9] Core Views - The company focuses on AI ecosystem with hardware and software platforms, providing cloud servers, edge computing devices, and intelligent computing cluster systems [2] - The company is developing a new generation of intelligent processor microarchitecture and instruction set, optimizing for natural language processing, video/image generation, and recommendation system models [3] - The company's active inventory buildup signals strong demand and potential for rapid revenue growth [4] - The company's intelligent computing cluster system business, which integrates self-developed acceleration cards and training machines, accounts for a significant portion of revenue [7] - Revenue is expected to grow from 1.52 billion yuan in 2024E to 3.62 billion yuan in 2026E, with a PS ratio of 37.20x, 70.12x, and 47.38x for 2024-2026 respectively [9] Business Breakdown - Revenue breakdown by segment (2024E-2026E): - Cloud intelligent chips and acceleration cards: 100 million yuan (2024E), 110 million yuan (2025E), 121 million yuan (2026E) [8] - Edge intelligent chips and acceleration cards: 12 million yuan (2024E), 13 million yuan (2025E), 14 million yuan (2026E) [8] - Intelligent computing cluster systems: 1.41 billion yuan (2024E), 2.32 billion yuan (2025E), 3.49 billion yuan (2026E) [8] - Total revenue: 1.52 billion yuan (2024E), 2.45 billion yuan (2025E), 3.62 billion yuan (2026E) [8] Financial Performance - 2024 Q3 revenue: 121 million yuan, up 284.59% YoY and 208.30% QoQ [4] - 2024 Q3 net profit: -194 million yuan, up 26.06% YoY and 35.94% QoQ [4] - Inventory levels increased to 1.015 billion yuan in Q3 2024, up from 235 million yuan in Q2 2024 and 247 million yuan in Q3 2023 [4] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 69% from 2024E to 2026E [10] - Net profit is expected to improve from -540.53 million yuan in 2024E to -163.93 million yuan in 2026E [10] Valuation Metrics - PE ratio: -317.43x (2024E), -527.13x (2025E), -1046.69x (2026E) [10] - PB ratio: 33.58x (2024E), 35.87x (2025E), 37.14x (2026E) [10] - ROE: -10.58% (2024E), -6.80% (2025E), -3.55% (2026E) [10]