新城控股：改弦易辙，运营发力

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's operational strength provides a solid foundation, while its development potential offers significant upside [1] - Macro policies have exceeded expectations, with measures such as lowering mortgage rates and down payment ratios, which are expected to benefit high-quality developers like the company [2] - The company's Wuyue Plaza has shown resilience, with operational revenue growing at a 5-year CAGR of 40%, reaching RMB 11.3 billion in 2023 [3] - Debt risks are expected to ease, as operational income can cover interest expenses, with a high probability of repaying USD bonds by the end of 2024 [4] - The company's income structure is optimizing, with operational business gross profit expected to exceed that of the development business by 2025 [6] Operational Performance - As of June 2024, the company has 201 Wuyue Plazas in 137 cities, with 165 already operational and 36 planned to open [3] - Operational revenue reached RMB 6.2 billion in H1 2024, a 19% YoY increase [3] - The company's commercial management capabilities have been strong, maintaining growth even during challenging market conditions from 2019 to 2022 [3] Financials and Valuation - The company's interest-bearing debt stood at RMB 55.8 billion as of June 2024, with an average cost of 6.05% [4] - Operational business gross profit is estimated to reach RMB 10.5 billion annually, with a steady-state revenue of over RMB 15 billion [10] - The DCF valuation of the company's Wuyue Plaza assets is approximately RMB 151.8 billion, with a relative valuation of RMB 60 billion based on a 10x PE ratio [10] - The company's total value is estimated at RMB 40 billion, with the current stock price not fully reflecting its value [10] Catalysts - Regular updates on the company's operational performance, including sales, rental income, and occupancy rates [5] - Continued reduction in debt levels and financing costs [5] - Increasing proportion of operational business income and profit in the financial statements [5] Industry Trends - The real estate industry is shifting towards a model where operational business becomes more important than development [4] - The company's dual-drive model of "development + operation" aligns with market trends, with operational business driving future performance [4]