SA(601021) Guohai Securities·2024-11-05 14:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 15.977 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.29%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.73% to 2.604 billion yuan [2][3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.102 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.48%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 32.37% to 1.244 billion yuan [2][3] - The passenger load factor has exceeded the same period in 2019, but revenue levels are under pressure due to lower yield per passenger kilometer [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from a decline in oil prices, which will significantly reduce operating costs in the future [5][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company's operating costs were 4.535 billion yuan, an increase of 8.37% year-on-year, while the unit ASK cost slightly decreased by 1.2% [4] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 20.38%, a decrease of 9.90 percentage points year-on-year due to increased tax expenses and pressure on revenue levels [4] Market Data - As of November 4, 2024, the current stock price is 56.84 yuan, with a market capitalization of 55.621 billion yuan [3][4] - The stock has a 52-week price range of 47.72 to 67.62 yuan [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 19.807 billion yuan, 21.758 billion yuan, and 23.788 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.414 billion yuan, 3.225 billion yuan, and 3.854 billion yuan [7][8] - The expected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 23.04, 17.25, and 14.43 respectively, indicating a favorable long-term growth outlook [7][8]