STO(SZ:002468) Guohai Securities·2024-11-05 14:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's single ticket profitability is continuously recovering, indicating strong performance elasticity [2][6] - The company achieved significant revenue growth and profit increases in the first three quarters of 2024, outperforming industry growth rates [3][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 33.491 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.16% - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 652 million yuan, up 195.18% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 639 million yuan, an increase of 204.77% [2][3] Business Volume and Market Share - The company completed a total of 16.110 billion express deliveries in Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.77% - The market share increased to 13.02%, up 0.87 percentage points year-on-year [3][6] Cost Management and Profitability - The report notes that the company has achieved significant cost reductions through scale effects and refined management, leading to a continuous recovery in single ticket profitability - The single ticket operating cost decreased by 0.33 yuan year-on-year, while the single ticket profit attributable to shareholders was 0.04 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.02 yuan [3][6] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 48.142 billion yuan, 55.065 billion yuan, and 61.996 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 14%, and 13% - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 858 million yuan, 1.229 billion yuan, and 1.556 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 152%, 43%, and 27% respectively [6][7]