舍得酒业：24Q3业绩承压，控货去库存仍为主线

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 91 CNY per share [4][12]. Core Views - The company is experiencing significant pressure on its performance, with Q3 2024 revenue and net profit down by 30.92% and 79.23% year-on-year, respectively [1]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and controlling product distribution, particularly in the mid-to-high-end liquor segment [1]. - The company plans to initiate a share buyback program, amounting to 1-2 billion CNY, representing 0.33%-0.66% of its shares [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 1.189 billion CNY, with a net profit of 78 million CNY and a non-recurring net profit of 75 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 30.92%, 79.23%, and 79.13%, respectively [1]. - The gross margin decreased by 10.97 percentage points to 63.66%, and the net margin fell by 15.59 percentage points to 6.34% due to a shift in product structure [2]. - The company reported a negative operating cash flow of 124 million CNY in Q3 2024, marking a year-on-year increase in losses of 108.78% [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects to continue adjustments in Q4 2024, preparing for a more favorable performance in 2025, with projected revenues of 5.636 billion CNY, 5.873 billion CNY, and 6.384 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][3]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024 is 951 million CNY, with expected growth of 9% and 16% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2][3]. Sales Performance - Q3 2024 sales revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 897 million CNY, down 35.66% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 153 million CNY, down 14.96% [1]. - The company's sales revenue from domestic and foreign markets in Q3 2024 was 347 million CNY and 703 million CNY, respectively, with declines of 21.59% and 37.87% year-on-year [1]. Cost and Expense Management - The company has adopted a cautious approach to expense management, with the sales expense ratio increasing by 3.38 percentage points to 24.84% in Q3 2024 [2]. - The management expense ratio decreased slightly by 0.46 percentage points to 12.31% [2].