新天然气：前三季度煤层气量价齐升，储备项目充足

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price reflecting a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.96 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, and a net profit of 880 million yuan, up 30.3% year-on-year [1]. - The coalbed methane business experienced both volume and price increases, with total production reaching 1.482 billion cubic meters, a growth of 20.48% year-on-year, accounting for 14.44% of Shanxi province's total production [2]. - The average selling price of coalbed methane increased to 2.16 yuan per cubic meter, a rise of 4.81% compared to the previous year [2]. - The city gas segment's profitability declined by over 30% year-on-year due to the delayed effects of price adjustments and rising procurement costs [3]. - The company has sufficient reserve projects, with stable production growth expected from the Akmomu gas field and other projects in the pipeline [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.96 billion yuan and a net profit of 880 million yuan, with the third quarter alone contributing 1.01 billion yuan in revenue and 280 million yuan in net profit, marking increases of 42.7% and 43.8% year-on-year, respectively [1]. - The company forecasts net profits of 1.3 billion yuan, 1.53 billion yuan, and 1.76 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.5x, 8.9x, and 7.7x [4]. - The financial data indicates a projected revenue growth rate of 21.06% for 2024, followed by 9.22% and 7.35% in the subsequent years [9]. Production and Pricing Insights - The total production of coalbed methane in the third quarter was 511 million cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.47% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.06% [2]. - The average selling price for the third quarter was 2.15 yuan per cubic meter, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.86% [2]. Project Development and Future Outlook - The company is advancing the development of the Akmomu gas field, aiming for an annual production of 800 million cubic meters, with additional projects expected to contribute to future production and revenue growth [4]. - The report highlights that the city gas segment's profitability will gradually improve as the impact of inventory gas diminishes [3].