➢ 美国原油库存下降，汽油库存上升。截至 7 月 11 日，1）原油：美国战略原 油储备 40270 万桶，周环比-30 万桶；商业原油库存 42216 万桶，周环比-386 万 桶 。 2 ） 成 品 油 ： 车 用 汽 油 / 航空煤油 / 馏 分 燃 料 油 库 存 分 别 为 23287/4481/10697 万桶，周环比+340/+57/+417 万桶。 ➢ 投资建议：我们推荐以下两条主线：1）油价有底，石油企业业绩确定性高， 叠加高分红特点，估值有望提升，建议关注抗风险能力强且资源量优势强的中国 石油、产量持续增长且桶油成本低的中国海油、高分红一体化公司中国石化；2） 国内鼓励油气增储上产，建议关注产量处于成长期的中曼石油、新天然气。 石化周报 OPEC+按计划增产，消费旺季影响下油价维持震荡 2025 年 07 月 19 日 ➢ OPEC+按计划增产，消费旺季影响下油价维持震荡。据 OPEC 最新数据， 25 年 6 月 DOC 产量环比增长 45.8 万桶/日，略高于其 41.1 万桶/日的增产计 划，其中，沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、哈萨克斯坦增产幅度最大，分别提产了 17.3、 8.3、5.1 万 ...

本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 周 分析师：苏治彬 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523080001 电话：0769-22110925 邮箱： suzhibin@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：刘兴文 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340522050001 电话：0769-22119416 邮箱： liuxingwen@dgzq.com.cn 超配（维持） 公用事业行业双周报（2025/7/4-2025/7/17） 国家能源局发布《2024 年度中国电力市场发展报告》 投资要点： 行业指数走势 资料来源：iFinD，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 报 公用事业 2025 年 7 月 18 日 行 业 研 究 ◼ 行情回顾：截至7月17日，近两周申万公用事业指数上涨0.7%，跑输沪深 300指数0.9个百分点，在31个申万行业中排第23名；年初至今，申万公 用事业指数上涨0.7%，跑输沪深300指数1.8个百分点，在31个申万行业 中排第24名。 ◼ 分板块来看，近两周 ...

Core Insights - The report predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fluctuate around $65-70 per barrel in the second half of 2025, driven by tight supply and slow demand growth, with potential short-term spikes due to geopolitical factors [4][9] - The petrochemical industry is expected to gradually recover from its bottoming out phase, returning to a normal capacity cycle constrained by credit boundaries, leading to a slow recovery in profitability in 2025 and beyond [4][10] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in high-quality growth stocks, coal chemical equipment investments, and high-dividend sectors, emphasizing a bottom-up investment approach [4][10] Oil Price Trends - Oil prices experienced a two-phase trend in 2025: a decline from $74.64 to $60.23 per barrel (down 19.31%) until May 3, followed by a recovery to $77.01 per barrel (up 27.86%) after May 3 due to seasonal demand and geopolitical tensions [7][25] - The report indicates that global oil supply remains tight, with non-OECD countries contributing to demand growth, which will limit the extent of price declines [9][27] Industry Performance - Global refining capacity is projected to grow by 440,000 barrels per day from 2022 to 2028, with China contributing significantly to this increase [27][33] - The report notes that domestic refined oil demand is nearing its peak, with a decline in consumption due to economic weakness and competition from electric vehicles [39][45] - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with some chemical products showing improved profitability despite high raw material costs [8][45] Investment Themes - The report emphasizes four main investment themes: 1. Quality growth and leading companies in the industry experiencing volume and price increases [10] 2. Opportunities in high-end materials and technology import substitution [10] 3. Investments related to the upcoming coal chemical investment cycle [10] 4. High dividend yielding state-owned enterprises benefiting from economic recovery [10][11] Recommendations - Key investment targets include leading companies in ethylene production, coal chemical leaders, and high dividend stocks such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum [11][10] - The report suggests focusing on companies that are positioned to benefit from the recovery in domestic demand and the transition to high-end materials [11][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural gas industry is "Positive" (first-time rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - Natural gas is recognized as a clean, low-carbon, and flexible fossil energy source, serving as a crucial bridge for energy transition. It is expected to support global energy transformation for an extended period [4][7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shown significant achievements in supply-side development, with infrastructure construction accelerating. By the end of 2024, China's natural gas production is projected to reach 246.451 billion cubic meters, a 28% increase from 2020 [4][14] - The consumption growth rate of natural gas during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has slowed compared to the previous five years, but the price mechanism is gradually being rationalized. The apparent consumption of natural gas in China is expected to reach 426.05 billion cubic meters in 2024, an 8% year-on-year increase [4][36] - The report anticipates a continued downward trend in natural gas costs, with stable demand growth expected before 2030. The demand for LNG in the transportation sector is projected to reach 40-55 billion cubic meters by 2030 [4][14] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Natural gas is positioned as a transitional energy source to achieve carbon peak goals by 2030, with a target of 15% of total energy consumption by that year [4][7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes energy security, energy conservation, and carbon reduction, with a clear trend of increasing natural gas consumption in provincial plans [8] Supply and Infrastructure - Significant progress has been made in increasing domestic gas production, with a focus on conventional and unconventional gas sources. The total length of natural gas pipelines reached 126,000 kilometers by the end of 2023 [14][25] - By the end of 2024, 31 LNG receiving stations will be operational, with a total receiving capacity exceeding 15 million tons per year [25][26] Consumption Trends - The natural gas consumption structure includes urban gas, industrial fuel, power generation, and chemical use, with urban gas and industrial fuel maintaining stable proportions [36] - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical factors on gas prices, with a notable increase in the average import price of LNG in 2022 [4][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream exploration companies like Xin Natural Gas, integrated companies like ENN Energy and Jiufeng Energy, and downstream city gas companies such as China Resources Gas and Kunlun Energy [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [47]. Core Insights - The public utility index increased by 1.0% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.2 percentage points, ranking 28th among 31 industries [6][13]. - Year-to-date, the public utility index has decreased by 0.02%, also underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.9 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 industries [6][13]. - Among the sub-sectors, the heating service sector rose by 6.4%, photovoltaic power generation by 5.2%, and electric energy comprehensive services by 3.3% in the last two weeks [15]. - The report highlights significant developments in the southern regional electricity market, marking a key step towards a unified national electricity market [42]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of July 3, the public utility index has seen a 1.0% increase in the last two weeks, while the CSI 300 index has outperformed it by 2.2 percentage points [6][13]. - The sub-sectors showed mixed performance, with five sectors rising and two declining [15]. 2. Industry Valuation - The public utility sector's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 18.5 times, with the photovoltaic sector at 747.3 times, indicating a significant valuation disparity [20][21]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - The average price of Shenxi Yulin block coal (Q6000) was 596 RMB/ton, up 2.4% from the previous value, while Qinhuangdao port coal (Q5500) averaged 613 RMB/ton, up 0.4% [32][33]. 4. Key Company Announcements - China Nuclear Power reported a 15.65% year-on-year increase in cumulative power generation for the first half of the year [40]. - Longyuan Power announced a 23.58% decrease in power generation for June compared to the previous year [40]. 5. Key Industry News - The southern regional electricity market's continuous settlement trial was launched, aiming to optimize electricity resource allocation across provinces [44]. - The State Council emphasized encouraging private capital participation in water and electricity infrastructure projects [44]. 6. Industry Weekly Perspective - The report suggests focusing on companies like Huadian International and Guodian Power due to the decline in average coal prices [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The easing of Middle East tensions has led to a decline in European gas prices, while high temperatures have driven up US gas prices, with domestic prices remaining stable [4][9] - The supply-demand dynamics indicate a slight increase in US gas supply and demand, with total supply rising by 0.2% week-on-week to 1,125 billion cubic feet per day, and total demand increasing by 6.3% to 1,047 billion cubic feet per day [16][24] - The report highlights the ongoing price adjustments in the domestic market, with a gradual implementation of pricing reforms across various cities [40] Price Tracking - As of June 27, 2025, US HH gas prices increased by 4.1% week-on-week, while European TTF prices decreased by 17.8% [9][14] - The domestic LNG ex-factory price was reported at 4,416 CNY per ton, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.2% [14][29] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes that the average total supply of natural gas in the US has increased by 4.0% year-on-year, while total demand has grown by 1.6% year-on-year [16][24] - European gas consumption for the first quarter of 2025 was 160 billion cubic meters, reflecting an 8.9% year-on-year increase [19] Pricing Mechanism Progress - The report indicates that 64% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 CNY per cubic meter [40] Important Events - The US gas import tariff has been reduced from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of US gas imports [47][49] - The European Parliament has agreed to provide greater flexibility regarding gas storage targets, allowing for a deviation of 10% from the 90% storage goal [52] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from pricing reforms, highlighting New Energy, China Gas, and Kunlun Energy as key investment opportunities [53][54] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and New Energy [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, New Natural Gas, and Zhongman Petroleum [6]. Core Insights - Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are driving a rebound in oil prices, with a focus on OPEC+'s actual production levels. The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding market expectations, and there are ongoing sanctions against Iran, which have made market shorts more cautious. Additionally, the number of U.S. oil rigs has decreased for six consecutive weeks, indicating potential production shortfalls [2][10]. - As of June 6, 2025, the Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.47 per barrel, up 4.02% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $64.58 per barrel, up 6.23% week-on-week. The NYMEX natural gas futures closed at $3.79 per million British thermal units, up 9.33% week-on-week [3][11][44]. - U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.41 million barrels per day, with refinery throughput rising to 17 million barrels per day. However, gasoline and distillate fuel oil production saw mixed results [11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The oil and gas sector is experiencing a rebound in prices due to macroeconomic recovery and geopolitical tensions. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day from May to July, but the market has not fully priced in these changes [2][10]. - The U.S. strategic oil reserves stood at 401.82 million barrels, with commercial crude oil inventories at 436.06 million barrels, reflecting a decrease of 4.3 million barrels week-on-week [12]. Company Performance - The report highlights the performance of key companies, recommending those with strong resource advantages and high dividend yields, such as China National Petroleum Corporation and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation [5][13]. - The report also notes that the oil and gas sector has outperformed the broader market indices, with a 1.1% increase in the sector compared to a 0.9% increase in the CSI 300 index [14][17]. Price Trends - Oil prices have shown significant increases, with Brent and WTI prices rising by 4.02% and 6.23% respectively. Natural gas prices have also increased, with NYMEX futures up 9.33% [36][44]. - The report provides detailed price data, indicating that the Brent crude oil price is currently at $66.47 per barrel, while the NYMEX natural gas price is at $3.79 per million British thermal units [37][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices have shown a downward trend recently, with Brent crude settling at approximately $63.90 per barrel, down about 1.30% week-on-week, and down approximately 15.80% since the beginning of the year [19][21] - The North American active rig count has decreased week-on-week, with a notable year-on-year decline of 37 rigs, indicating a potential future increase in global drilling platform activity [31] - The refining sector shows promising recovery potential, with significant increases in price differentials for various products, suggesting improved profitability for refining companies [35] Market Performance - The CITIC oil and petrochemical sector rose approximately 0.37% during the week of May 26 to May 30, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by about 0.39 percentage points [16] - Key stocks that led the gains include Hengtong Co., Hongtian Co., and Compton, while stocks like Guangju Energy and Dongfang Shenghong saw declines [17][18] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment themes: 1. Focus on major energy state-owned enterprises like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which are pushing for oil and gas exploration and green transformation [53] 2. Increased global upstream capital expenditure benefiting oil service companies such as CNOOC Services and Offshore Engineering [53] 3. Accelerated development of coal chemical projects and natural gas resources in Xinjiang, with a focus on companies like Baofeng Energy and New Natural Gas [53] 4. Refining companies planning new capacities and accelerating new material projects, recommending companies like Satellite Chemical and Hengli Petrochemical [53]

证券代码：603393 证券简称：新天然气 公告编号：2025-024 新疆鑫泰天然气股份有限公司 关于控股子公司存续分立的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 因经营需要,为进一步构建可持续发展新格局，赋能产业发展,新疆明新油 气勘探开发有限公司（以下简称＂新疆明新＂）拟进行存续分立，分立为存续公 司新疆明新和一家新设公司。分立完成后，新疆明新和新设公司股权比例保持不 变，仍然是公司持股 65%，克拉玛依市富城能源集团有限公司（简称"富城能源"） 持股 35%。 ● 本次分立完成后，新疆明新将成为以煤基能源清洁高效低碳转化与利用 的综合专业化运营公司，开发项目是持有的位于新疆哈密地区巴里坤县三塘湖矿 区七号勘查区的煤炭资源探矿权的勘探、开发和生产等。新设公司将成为新疆喀 什北油气资源项目勘探、开发和生产的运营主体。 ● 本次分立，从资产运作效率来看，有利于控股子公司优化资源配置，提 升专业化管理水平。从战略发展角度来看，有利于控股子公司未来引入新的战略 投资人，加速煤基能源项目开发。同时可 ...

特此公告。 新疆鑫泰天然气股份有限公司监事会 新疆鑫泰天然气股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第五届监事会第四次 会议的通知，于 2025 年 5 月 29 日以电子邮件的方式发出。第五届监事会第四 次会议于 2025 年 6 月 3 日在公司会议室召开，会议应出席监事 3 人，实到 3 人。会议由监事会主席黄敏先生主持，符合《公司法》、《公司章程》及《监 事会议事规则》的有关规定。会议经审议表决，以现场表决方式一致通过以下 决议： 一、审议《关于控股子公司存续分立的议案》 经与会监事表决，审议通过该议案。详见公司同日在上海证券交易所网站 （www.sse.com.cn）披露的《新疆鑫泰天然气股份有限公司关于控股子公司存 续分立的公告》。 表决结果：同意票 3 票、反对票 0 票、弃权票 0 票。 证券代码：603393 证券简称：新天然气 公告编号：2025-023 新疆鑫泰天然气股份有限公司 第五届监事会第四次会议决议公告 本公司监事及监事会全体成员保证公告内容不存在虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2025 年 6 月 4 日 1 ...