YTO(600233) 华福证券·2024-11-06 01:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for YTO Express, with projected net profits of 3.9 billion, 4.7 billion, and 5.4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6][3] Core Views - YTO Express reported a 21.1% YoY increase in revenue to 49.37 billion yuan and a 10.2% YoY increase in net profit to 2.93 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 16.81 billion yuan, up 22.1% YoY, and a net profit of 940 million yuan, up 18.1% YoY [2] - The company's market share in express delivery reached 15.4% in Q3 2024, with a total volume of 18.92 billion parcels for the first three quarters, up 26.0% YoY [2] - Despite a 5.8% YoY decline in ASP (Average Selling Price) to 2.20 yuan per parcel in Q3 2024, the company maintained strong profitability [2] Financial Performance - YTO Express's gross profit for Q3 2024 was 1.41 billion yuan, up 9.8% YoY, with a gross margin of 8.4%, down 1.0 percentage points YoY [3] - The company's net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 5.6%, down 0.2 percentage points YoY, with a net profit per parcel of 0.14 yuan, down 7.8% YoY [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's gross profit was 4.76 billion yuan, up 11.2% YoY, and net profit was 2.93 billion yuan, up 10.2% YoY [3] Market Position and Volume - YTO Express handled 6.71 billion parcels in Q3 2024, with a market share of 15.4%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points YoY [2] - The company's total parcel volume for the first three quarters of 2024 was 18.92 billion, up 26.0% YoY, with a market share of 15.3% [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 64.45 billion yuan in 2024, 74.39 billion yuan in 2025, and 86.39 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 12%, 15%, and 16%, respectively [5] - Net profit is expected to reach 3.90 billion yuan in 2024, 4.65 billion yuan in 2025, and 5.41 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 5%, 19%, and 16%, respectively [5] - EPS is forecasted to be 1.13 yuan in 2024, 1.35 yuan in 2025, and 1.57 yuan in 2026 [5] Valuation Metrics - The P/E ratio is projected to be 14.3 in 2024, 12.0 in 2025, and 10.3 in 2026 [5] - The P/B ratio is expected to decline from 1.7 in 2024 to 1.3 in 2026 [5] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Total assets are projected to grow from 46.06 billion yuan in 2024 to 59.70 billion yuan in 2026 [7] - Operating cash flow is expected to increase from 7.67 billion yuan in 2024 to 9.38 billion yuan in 2026 [7] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is forecasted to remain stable at around 28.5% to 28.8% from 2024 to 2026 [7]