YILI(600887) 华鑫证券·2024-11-06 01:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Yili Group (600887.SH) [1][2] Core Views - Yili Group's revenue showed a quarter-on-quarter improvement, with profits exceeding expectations. The company reported a revenue of 887.33 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 16% to 108.68 billion yuan [1][2] - The report highlights that the pressure on revenue during the adjustment period has eased, and the mismatch between raw milk supply and demand has decreased [1] - The company has completed inventory adjustments for liquid milk and is continuously developing non-dairy businesses, with Q3 liquid milk revenue at 206.37 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year, but with improved channel adjustments and product freshness [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Yili Group's revenue was 290.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 33.37 billion yuan, an increase of 9% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 increased by 2 percentage points to 34.85%, benefiting from lower raw milk costs [1] - The company expects overall performance to show quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q4 2024, with a projected net profit margin increase of 2 percentage points to 11.45% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Q3 2024 revenue from milk powder and dairy products was 68.21 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, driven by an increase in terminal selection rates and product upgrades [1] - Revenue from cold drinks and other products was 10.21 billion yuan and 1.85 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 17% and 23% [1] Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.87, 1.83, and 1.89 yuan, respectively, maintaining a PE ratio of 16 for 2024 [2]