BAOFENG ENERGY(600989) Changjiang Securities·2024-11-06 01:54Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.275 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.99%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.537 billion yuan, up 16.60% year-on-year. However, in Q3 2024, the revenue was 7.377 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.91% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 14.91%. The net profit for Q3 was 1.232 billion yuan, down 24.60% year-on-year and 34.59% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 24.275 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.99%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.537 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.60%. The operating cash flow for the same period was 5.780 billion yuan, up 1.68% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the revenue was 7.377 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.91% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.91%. The net profit for Q3 was 1.232 billion yuan, down 24.60% year-on-year and 34.59% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. Market Performance - The company's coke segment saw a decline in Q3 2024, with an average price of approximately 1,308 yuan per ton, down 5.6% quarter-on-quarter due to pressure on terminal demand. The company increased its coal production capacity by 1 million tons per year in 2023, with specific increases at various mines. The total coal production capacity reached 9.1 million tons per year [4][5]. New Projects and Growth Potential - The company is advancing several new projects, including the Ningdong Phase III project, which will add 1.5 million tons of methanol and 1 million tons of olefins capacity. The Inner Mongolia coal-based new materials project is set to be the largest coal-to-olefins facility globally, with a total capacity of 3 million tons per year. The Xinjiang project is also expected to open new growth opportunities for the company [6][7]. Financial Forecast - The projected net profit for the company from 2024 to 2026 is 6.62 billion yuan, 14.05 billion yuan, and 16.21 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios based on the closing price on October 30, 2024, are 17.7X, 8.4X, and 7.3X, maintaining a "Buy" rating [7].