TKGF(601233) 长江证券·2024-11-06 01:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 76.05 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.01 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 820 million yuan, an increase of 21.8% year-on-year. However, in Q3 alone, the company faced a net loss of 60 million yuan, a significant decline of 107.3% year-on-year and 112.1% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2023, the company increased its production capacity for polyester filament by 3 million tons per year, leading to a significant rise in sales volume. For Q1-Q3 2024, the sales volumes for POY, FDY, and DTY were 7.1 million tons, 1.56 million tons, and 800,000 tons, reflecting year-on-year changes of +27.2%, +54.4%, and +13.1% respectively [4]. Price Trends - The average price difference for polyester filament POY (considering a 14-day lag in raw materials) was 218 yuan/ton, down 142 yuan/ton year-on-year. The PTA price difference averaged -71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan/ton quarter-on-quarter. Overall, the prices for polyester filament and PTA are expected to trend downward in 2024, impacting the company's profitability [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The polyester filament industry has experienced a compound annual growth rate of 8.2% in domestic demand over the past decade. The price advantages of polyester over traditional natural fibers like cotton are significant, and applications for polyester continue to expand. The net new capacity in the industry for 2024 is projected to be only 410,000 tons, representing about 0.8% of total capacity, indicating limited supply growth [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its overseas refining operations, with a significant investment in the Taikun Petrochemical integrated refining project in Indonesia, which has a total investment of 5.95 billion USD and a capacity of 10 million tons/year for refining, along with other petrochemical products. This strategic move is expected to enhance the company's long-term growth prospects [6]. Future Profitability Projections - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the polyester filament market, with projected net profits of 1.41 billion yuan, 3.29 billion yuan, and 3.99 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026 respectively [7].