LFX(600612) 海通证券·2024-11-06 01:57Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 525.82 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15.28%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 17.76 billion yuan, down 9.60% year-on-year [4][6] - In the third quarter of 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue, reporting 126.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 41.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.72 billion yuan, down 46.20% year-on-year [4][6] - The company is actively supporting its franchisees during the downturn in demand caused by rising gold prices, which has pressured terminal sales [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 525.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 17.76 billion yuan, down 9.60% year-on-year. The revenue for the third quarter alone was 126.23 billion yuan, reflecting a 41.89% year-on-year decline, with a net profit of 3.72 billion yuan, a 46.20% decrease [4][6] - The gross profit margin for the third quarter of 2024 was 6.52%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year, attributed to support provided to franchisees and changes in product structure [6][9] Market and Industry Analysis - The gold jewelry consumption in the third quarter of 2024 was 130 tons, down 29% year-on-year, while gold bar consumption was 69 tons, down 9% year-on-year. The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry above designated size decreased by 7.6% year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to maintain a long-term investment value despite the current challenges, supported by its strong brand and stable expansion through a wholesale (franchise) model [9] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 19.0 billion yuan, 19.9 billion yuan, and 21.0 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9] - The estimated valuation for 2024 is set at 14-16 times PE, corresponding to a market value range of 266-303 billion yuan, with a reasonable value range of 50.76-58.02 yuan per share [9]