ANGEL YEAST(600298) 海通证券·2024-11-06 01:58Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a Q3 revenue increase of 27.14% year-on-year, and a total revenue of 10.912 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a 13.04% increase year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to recover its profit margins as raw material prices decline, despite a current gross margin decrease of 3.62 percentage points in Q3 [6] - The company has experienced significant growth in its other product lines, particularly with a 76.54% increase in revenue from other products in Q3 [6] - The company has achieved notable growth in both domestic and international markets, with Q3 revenue from domestic sales at 2.269 billion yuan (+20.7%) and international sales at 1.433 billion yuan (+30.2%) [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 is projected to be 1.57, 1.72, and 1.98 yuan respectively, with a reasonable valuation range of 39.25 to 47.1 yuan based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 25-30 times for 2024 [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.738 billion yuan, with a net profit of 262 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.02% [5] - The company’s cash flow from operations for Q3 was 1.208 billion yuan, up 44.11% year-on-year [5] - The gross margin for Q3 was 21.35%, down 3.62 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.51%, down 0.24 percentage points [6] - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected to be 13.581 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [8] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue and growth rates for various product lines in Q3 2024 are as follows: - Yeast and deep-processed products: 2.592 billion yuan (+17.76%) - Sugar products: 309 million yuan (+5.48%) - Packaging products: 111 million yuan (+16.3%) - Other products: 690 million yuan (+76.54%) [6] Market Comparison - The company’s stock performance over the past three months shows an absolute increase of 28.5% compared to the CSI 300 index [4] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 32.904 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 32.368 billion yuan [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 15.408 billion yuan in 2024, 17.046 billion yuan in 2025, and 18.664 billion yuan in 2026 [10] - The net profit is forecasted to grow from 1.365 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.724 billion yuan in 2026, indicating a strong growth potential [10]