APG(002284) 海通证券·2024-11-06 01:58Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Asia-Pacific Parts (002284) [1] Core Views - Asia-Pacific Parts is accelerating its overseas layout and has secured overseas EPB (Electronic Parking Brake) orders [4] - The company has a comprehensive product portfolio in braking systems and competes with international automotive parts giants [4] - Its sales network covers major domestic and international automakers, with exports to regions including North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia [4][5] - The company is steadily advancing its overseas market expansion and globalization strategy, with subsidiaries established in Germany and Singapore, and plans to set up a company in Morocco [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to reach 4.33/4.92/5.70 billion yuan in 2024/25/26, with net profit of 206/239/287 million yuan [5] - EPS is forecasted at 0.28/0.32/0.39 yuan for 2024/25/26 [5] - The company is valued at 25-30x PE for 2024, with a fair value range of 6.95-8.34 yuan [5] Business Segments Automotive Braking Systems - Revenue from automotive braking systems reached 2.91 billion yuan in 2023, with a 15.8% gross margin [8] - Growth is expected to come from overseas capacity construction and market expansion, with two major overseas orders secured in 2024 [8] - Revenue growth is projected at 5% annually from 2024 to 2026, with a stable gross margin of around 15.8% [8] Automotive Electronic Control Systems - Revenue from automotive electronic control systems was 781 million yuan in 2023, with a 15.5% gross margin [9] - A significant overseas EPB order was secured in 2024, with a lifecycle sales value of 3.8 billion yuan [9] - Domestic EPB market shows potential for localization, with Chinese suppliers accounting for 20.44% of the market in 2022 [9] - Revenue growth is projected at 40% annually from 2024 to 2026, with gross margin improving to 16.7% by 2026 [9] Financial Performance - Revenue grew 3.3% YoY in 2023 to 3.87 billion yuan, with net profit increasing 42.7% YoY to 97 million yuan [7] - Gross margin improved to 16.7% in 2023, up from 13.7% in 2022 [7] - ROE is expected to rise from 3.5% in 2023 to 8.3% in 2026 [7] Market Performance - The stock price has fluctuated between 5.09-11.36 yuan over the past 52 weeks, with a closing price of 8.11 yuan on November 4, 2024 [1] - The stock has underperformed the CSI 300 index over the past 1M, 2M, and 3M periods [3]