wanhua(600309) 海通证券·2024-11-06 02:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 50.537 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.48%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29.41% to 2.919 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in product prices and an increase in raw material costs [4][6] - The company has completed several technical upgrades and expansions, leading to a year-on-year increase in the sales volume of major products. In the first three quarters of 2024, the sales volume of the polyurethane series reached 4.1 million tons, up 14.21% year-on-year [4][5] - New production capacities are being launched, with significant advancements in self-developed POE industrialization and the successful commissioning of a 48,000 tons/year citral facility [5][6] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 175.361 billion yuan in 2023 to 241.167 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.9% [7][10] - The net profit is expected to decline to 14.895 billion yuan in 2024 but is projected to recover to 22.250 billion yuan by 2026 [7][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 4.74 yuan in 2024, increasing to 7.09 yuan in 2026 [6][10] Product Performance - The polyurethane series is expected to generate revenue of 67.386 billion yuan in 2023, with a gross margin of 27.69% [8] - The petrochemical series is projected to have a revenue of 23.836 billion yuan in 2023, with a significantly lower gross margin of 3.51% [8] - The fine chemicals and new materials series are anticipated to generate 27.471 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, with a gross margin of 21.42% [8] Market Comparison - The company is compared with peers such as Hualu Hengsheng and Yangnong Chemical, with an average PE ratio of 14.96 for 2023 [9]