新易盛：三季度业绩优异，800G、LPO等共同驱动2025高增

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating strong confidence in its future performance [1] Core Viewpoints - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded market expectations, driven by strong demand for 800G and LPO products [1] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 5.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 145.8%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.65 billion yuan, up 283.2% year-on-year [1] - The company's 800G products have achieved mass production, and demand for LPO products is expected to grow significantly in 2025 [1] - The company is expanding production capacity in both Sichuan and Thailand, with the Thai factory's second phase expected to be completed in Q4 2024, supporting future growth [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 2.4 billion yuan, up 207.1% year-on-year and 48.8% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 780 million yuan, up 453.1% year-on-year [1] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 41.5%, an increase of 15.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by higher sales of high-speed products and economies of scale [3] - The company's inventory value increased by 35.3% quarter-on-quarter to 3.03 billion yuan, reflecting preparations for future production [1] Industry Outlook - The global AI cluster optical module market is expected to double in size in 2024 and continue to grow at a near-doubling rate in 2025, with demand from non-NVIDIA customers driving growth [1] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for 800G and LPO products, with strong technical reserves in 1.6T technology [4] - The DCI optical module market is expected to grow rapidly due to the trend towards distributed training across multiple data centers and low-latency edge-cloud inference [1] Future Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 7.12 billion yuan in 2024 to 16.82 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from 2.24 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.46 billion yuan in 2026 [6] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 44-45% from 2025 onwards, reflecting the company's strong market position and efficient operations [6] - The company's ROE is forecasted to reach 38.1% in 2025, indicating strong profitability and efficient use of capital [6]