SA(601021) 光大证券·2024-11-06 04:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6-12 months [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 16 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.73% year-on-year [1]. - The recovery in air travel demand continues, with Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) exceeding 2019 levels, showing a 20% year-on-year increase for the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - The decline in seat kilometer revenue has impacted performance, with a 3.1% year-on-year decrease in seat kilometer revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing improvements in air travel demand and cost management, with a focus on maintaining a low-cost structure [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 6.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.48% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.63%, with a net profit of 1.244 billion yuan, down 32.37% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s RPK for the first three quarters of 2024 grew by 20% year-on-year, with domestic routes increasing by 12% and international routes by 87% [2]. - The average seat kilometer revenue for the first three quarters was 0.38 yuan, down 3.1% year-on-year, while the cost per passenger kilometer decreased by 0.7% year-on-year to 0.31 yuan [3]. Market Outlook - The aviation market is expected to continue its recovery, supported by both domestic and international demand, with a relatively stable fleet size indicating supply constraints [3]. - The report anticipates a decline in oil prices due to weak demand, which could alleviate cost pressures for airlines [3]. - The company is projected to see net profits of 2.446 billion yuan, 3.272 billion yuan, and 4.196 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a positive long-term outlook [4].