Seazen(601155) 华创证券·2024-11-06 06:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.7 CNY, compared to the current price of 15.04 CNY [5][3]. Core Insights - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first nine months of 2024, with total revenue of 51.56 billion CNY, down 27.66% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.45 billion CNY, down 41.31% [1][2]. - The gross margin for the third quarter was reported at 17.5%, reflecting a decrease of 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, primarily due to a slowdown in residential development business turnover [2]. - The company’s contract sales for the first nine months amounted to approximately 31.8 billion CNY, a decrease of about 47% year-on-year, indicating potential challenges in future sales volume [2]. - The commercial operations segment showed resilience, with total revenue of approximately 9.5 billion CNY for the first nine months, an increase of 16.64% year-on-year, and an occupancy rate of 97.65% as of September 30 [3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, total revenue is projected at 119.17 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.2%. However, for 2024, revenue is expected to decline by 22.7% to 92.13 billion CNY [4]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 737 million CNY, with a significant decline of 47.1%, but a recovery is anticipated in subsequent years with projected growth rates of 7.0% and 14.0% for 2024 and 2025, respectively [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at 0.35 CNY, with a slight increase to 0.40 CNY in 2025 and remaining stable in 2026 [4].