CBC(SH:600132) Xinda Securities·2024-11-06 08:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Beer (600132) is maintained as "Buy" [3]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 13.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.26%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.332 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.9% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 7.1% year-on-year, with sales volume down by 5.6% to 870,000 kiloliters and average price per ton down by 1.6% to 4,813 yuan, primarily due to weakened consumer spending affecting high-end beer sales [2]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong brand matrix and product innovation capabilities, which are expected to support long-term growth despite current macroeconomic challenges [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported a net profit of 431 million yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 10.2%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The cost per kiloliter of beer increased by 1.1% year-on-year to 2,446 yuan, but this was an improvement from the previous quarter's increase of 2.1% [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 49.17%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased depreciation from the new factory in Foshan [2]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for Chongqing Beer to be 2.83 yuan, 2.91 yuan, and 3.03 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22, 21, and 20 times based on the closing price of 61.99 yuan per share on November 5, 2024 [3]. Revenue and Profitability - The total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 14.806 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, followed by a projected growth of 4.1% and 4.4% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 1.367 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.465 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% [3].