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百胜中国:运营调整能力强,股东回馈力度加大
09987YUM CHINA(09987) 民生证券·2024-11-06 06:28

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [5]. Core Views - Yum China demonstrated strong operational efficiency and cost control, with a Q3 restaurant profit margin of 17%, stable year-on-year [2]. - The company plans to increase its shareholder return by 50% from 3billionto3 billion to 4.5 billion for the years 2024-2026, with a target of returning 1.5billiontoshareholdersin2024[4].Thecompanyisfocusingonexpandingitsfranchisemodel,aimingtoincreasetheproportionoffranchisestoresfrom15201.5 billion to shareholders in 2024 [4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its franchise model, aiming to increase the proportion of franchise stores from 15-20% to 40-50% in the coming years [3]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Yum China reported revenues of 3.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%, with a system sales growth of 4% [1]. - The operating profit for Q3 was 371million,reflectingayearonyearincreaseof15371 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15%, with an operating profit margin of 12.1% [1]. - The GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 297 million, up 22% year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP net profit also stood at 297million,markinga20297 million, marking a 20% increase [1]. Store Expansion and Market Strategy - The company opened 438 new stores in Q3, with 145 being franchise stores, representing 33% of the new openings [3]. - As of Q3 2024, Yum China had a total of 15,861 stores, with KFC and Pizza Hut accounting for 11,283 and 3,606 stores, respectively [3]. - The company is leveraging favorable raw material prices and operational efficiency projects to maintain stable profit margins despite pressures on same-store sales [2]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for FY2024-2026 is 902 million, 978million,and978 million, and 1.05 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.37,2.37, 2.57, and $2.76 [4][9]. - The report projects a P/E ratio of 21, 19, and 18 for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026, respectively, based on the closing price on November 5 [4][9].