电投能源：电解铝板块业绩修复，新能源装机规模快速扩张

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][15]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 21.81 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.54%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.40 billion yuan, up 22.73% year-on-year [1]. - The recovery in the electrolytic aluminum sector and rapid expansion of the new energy installation scale are key drivers for the company's performance [4]. - The company has a strong outlook for continued growth in both the electrolytic aluminum and new energy sectors, supported by favorable market conditions and strategic expansions [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 21.81 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.40 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.54% and 22.73% respectively [1]. - The coal power segment saw a revenue of 849 million yuan in the first half of 2024, down 15.98% year-on-year, while the gross profit margin decreased to 32.73% [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum segment generated a revenue of 7.73 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, up 11.33% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 1.92 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 64.52% [3]. Sector Performance - The new energy segment's installed capacity reached 4.78 million kilowatts by the end of the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 53.20%. The segment's revenue was 826 million yuan, up 62.28% year-on-year [4]. - The average domestic aluminum price for the first three quarters of 2024 was 19,715 yuan per ton, an increase of 5.93% year-on-year, contributing to the recovery of the electrolytic aluminum sector [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast has been adjusted to reflect the increase in aluminum prices and the rapid expansion of the new energy segment. The expected net profits for 2024-2026 are 5.58 billion, 5.83 billion, and 6.45 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.33%, 4.61%, and 10.51% [4]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 8.70, 8.31, and 7.52 times for the respective years [4].