HLGF(600346) 财信证券·2024-11-06 10:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Petrochemical (600346 SH) [1] Core Views - Despite raw material price declines impacting performance, Hengli Petrochemical demonstrates strong profit resilience [1] - The company's 160 000 tons/year performance resin and new materials project is expected to be operational by the end of 2024, focusing on differentiated quality improvement of resin materials [5] - The Fenhu base's 12 functional film production lines have been gradually put into operation, while the Nantong base's 12 functional film projects and lithium battery separator project are expected to be completed and operational in the first half of 2025 [5] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 65 225 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2 42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20 46% [4] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company was 1 087 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59 01% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 42 14% [4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1 777 64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2 69%, with a gross profit margin of 10 36% and a net profit margin of 2 88% [4] Industry and Market Performance - Hengli Petrochemical's stock price performance over the past year shows a 1-month decline of 10 09%, a 3-month increase of 4 22%, and a 12-month decrease of 0 35% [2] - The refining and trading industry sector shows a 1-month decline of 5 33%, a 3-month increase of 3 52%, and a 12-month increase of 0 15% [2] Future Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 254 522 billion yuan in 2024, 269 530 billion yuan in 2025, and 285 476 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 8 186 billion yuan in 2024, 10 156 billion yuan in 2025, and 11 917 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - EPS is forecasted to be 1 16 yuan in 2024, 1 44 yuan in 2025, and 1 69 yuan in 2026 [3] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 14 58 in 2023 to 8 45 in 2026 [3] - P/B ratio is projected to decline from 1 68 in 2023 to 1 26 in 2026 [3] - The report suggests a target price range of 18 58-20 43 yuan based on 2 0-2 2 times PB for 2024 [6]