老凤祥：金价高位拖累终端消费

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price yet to be specified [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2024, with revenue at 12.6 billion yuan, down 42% year-on-year, and net profit at 370 million yuan, down 46% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its core capabilities in brand, quality, technology, standards, and service to drive high-quality development and achieve its operational goals [1] - The rising gold prices are impacting end-consumer demand, prompting the company to implement supportive measures to stabilize operations, including new product development and increased advertising [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue was 52.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 15% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.8 billion yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 8.56%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points, and the net margin was 4.34%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points [1] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting EPS of 3.8 yuan, 4.3 yuan, and 4.7 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13x [1][2] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2022 was 63,010.14 million yuan, with a growth rate of 7.36%, and for 2023, it was 71,435.64 million yuan, with a growth rate of 13.37% [2][5] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 60,720.30 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 15% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 1,700.34 million yuan, with a growth rate of -9.38%, and for 2023, it was 2,214.40 million yuan, with a growth rate of 30.23% [2][5] Cash Flow and Investment Activities - The operating cash flow for 2023 was 7,211.58 million yuan, with a significant increase compared to 964.08 million yuan in 2022 [4] - The company is expected to have a net cash increase of 171.33 million yuan in 2024, following a cash increase of 3,731.53 million yuan in 2023 [4]