CBC(SH:600132) Southwest Securities·2024-11-06 10:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Beer (600132) [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in revenue of 0.3% year-on-year for the first three quarters, totaling 13.06 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 0.9% to 1.33 billion yuan. In Q3 alone, revenue fell by 7.1% year-on-year to 4.2 billion yuan, and net profit dropped by 10.1% to 430 million yuan, slightly below market expectations [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the gross margin was 49.2%, remaining stable year-on-year. However, in Q3, the gross margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 49.2%. The decline in high-margin premium beer sales and increased depreciation costs from the new factory contributed to this pressure [3][4] - The company’s sales expense ratio in Q3 was 14.7%, down by 0.9 percentage points, while the management expense ratio increased by 1 percentage point to 3.2%. Overall, the net profit margin in Q3 decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 20.6% [3] Market Demand and Sales - Consumer demand remains weak, with Q3 sales volume down by 5.6% year-on-year to 873,000 tons. The decline is attributed to a weak beer consumption environment and a high base from the previous year. Revenue growth rates for different beer segments in Q3 were -9.2% for premium, -7.6% for mainstream, and +20% for economy beers [2][4] - The average selling price per ton in Q3 fell by 2.4% year-on-year to 4,677 yuan, influenced by the decline in mid-to-high-end beer sales [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in sales as consumer spending gradually improves. The introduction of new products and the expansion of existing brands are anticipated to enhance revenue and profit margins in the future. The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 2.80 yuan, 2.95 yuan, and 3.14 yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 21, 20, and 19 [4][5]