PJRC(600395) 中泰证券·2024-11-06 10:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Panjiang Coal and Electric Power (600395 SH) [2] Core Views - The company's coal business is expected to recover gradually, with improved profitability in Q3 2024 despite a significant decline in sales volume [3] - The power generation business showed strong growth in Q3 2024, with a 7877 64% YoY increase in power generation and the successful grid connection of the Puding 1 unit [3] - The report forecasts revenue growth of 17 5% in 2025 and 11 2% in 2026, with net profit expected to increase by 87 6% in 2025 [6] Financial Performance - In 2024 Q3, the company reported revenue of 2 403 billion yuan (+3 50% YoY, +14 60% QoQ) and a net loss of 2 million yuan (-101 36% YoY, -113 10% QoQ) [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was 6 449 billion yuan (-15 36% YoY) with net profit of 35 million yuan (-95 45% YoY) [3] - The company's coal sales volume in Q3 2024 was 1 85 million tons (-33 11% YoY, -14 97% QoQ) [3] Business Segments Coal Business - Coal production in Q3 2024 was 2 44 million tons (-13 61% YoY, +0 40% QoQ) [3] - The average coal price in Q3 2024 was 815 yuan/ton (+2 38% YoY, +4 01% QoQ) with a cost of 644 yuan/ton (+18 23% YoY, +2 96% QoQ) [3] - Gross profit per ton of coal was 172 yuan (-31 88% YoY, +8 15% QoQ) [3] Power Business - Power generation in Q3 2024 reached 2 417 billion kWh (+7877 64% YoY, +161 80% QoQ) [3] - The average grid electricity price was 0 363 yuan/kWh (-8 79% YoY, -0 92% QoQ) [3] - The Puding 2*660MW coal-fired power project's first unit was successfully connected to the grid on September 30, 2024 [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to be 8 844 billion yuan in 2024, 10 393 billion yuan in 2025, and 11 553 billion yuan in 2026 [1][3] - Net profit attributable to parent company is expected to be 380 million yuan in 2024, 712 million yuan in 2025, and 740 million yuan in 2026 [1][3] - EPS is forecasted at 0 18 yuan in 2024, 0 33 yuan in 2025, and 0 34 yuan in 2026 [1][3] Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio is 31 4x for 2024, 16 8x for 2025, and 16 1x for 2026 [1][3] - The P/B ratio remains at 1 0x across all forecast years [1][3] - ROE is expected to improve from 3% in 2024 to 6% in 2025-2026 [1] Capital Structure - The debt-to-equity ratio is projected to increase from 144% in 2024 to 187 8% in 2026 [6] - The asset-liability ratio is expected to rise from 64 7% in 2024 to 70 4% in 2026 [6] - Current ratio is forecasted to decline from 0 6 in 2024 to 0 4 in 2026 [6]