BAOFENG ENERGY(600989) 华安证券·2024-11-06 10:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.275 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.537 billion yuan, up 16.60% year-on-year [3] - The third quarter saw a decline in profitability due to maintenance affecting polyolefin production and sales, with a significant drop in net profit compared to the previous quarter [4] - The Inner Mongolia project is set to commence production soon, which is expected to enhance profitability stability moving forward [5] - The company is also advancing its Xinjiang project, which is anticipated to provide long-term growth potential [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.377 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.91%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.91%. The net profit for the quarter was 1.232 billion yuan, down 24.60% year-on-year and 34.59% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company’s annual net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 6.467 billion yuan, 13.517 billion yuan, and 15.009 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.26, 8.73, and 7.87 [6] Production and Sales - The production and sales of coke remained stable, while polyolefin production and sales saw a decline due to maintenance activities at the Ningdong Phase III project [4] - The company expects the high oil-coal ratio to maintain stability, which will reduce the impact of the volatile coking sector on overall profitability [4] Project Developments - The Inner Mongolia project is progressing as planned, with 70% of the investment already completed. The first production unit is expected to enter trial production in October 2024 [5] - The Xinjiang coal-to-olefins project has begun environmental assessments, which could significantly contribute to the company's future growth [5]