Loctek(SZ:300729) Guoxin Securities·2024-11-06 11:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][3][12]. Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 48.0% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 3.98 billion [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 48.6% year-on-year to 270 million, while the non-recurring net profit dropped by 8.6% to 140 million [1]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue accelerated to 1.55 billion, marking a 53.7% increase, with a net profit of 110 million, up 43.0% [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the peak season of cross-border e-commerce, with continued high growth in overseas warehouse operations [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 27.5%, down 10.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to new overseas warehouses not yet reaching breakeven and high shipping costs [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.98 billion, a 48.0% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 270 million, down 48.6% [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 29.8%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points, while the net margin was 6.7%, a decrease of 12.6 percentage points [1]. - The company expects revenue growth to continue accelerating in Q4 due to major promotional events [1]. Business Outlook - The cross-border e-commerce sector is showing positive momentum, with a 11.5% growth in exports for the first three quarters of 2024 [1]. - The company anticipates that its overseas warehouse business will maintain triple-digit growth, supported by strong demand for large items [1]. - The company has opened 19 overseas warehouses with a total area of 620,000 square meters, which is expected to improve profitability as utilization rates increase [1]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 410 million, 490 million, and 570 million respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 35% in 2024, followed by growth in subsequent years [1][2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 12, 10, and 9 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1].