SFC(601595) 天风证券·2024-11-06 11:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2024, attributed to the overall market downturn and insufficient supply of quality films. However, there are signs of improvement in Q4 due to economic stimulus measures [2][4]. - The development of major intellectual properties (IPs) is progressing steadily, which is expected to contribute positively to the company's performance in the coming years [3][4]. - The company is actively pursuing collaborations in the AI and interactive entertainment sectors to enhance content creation and production capabilities [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 179 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.52%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 38 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 1 million yuan [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 560 million yuan, down 11.07% year-on-year, and net profit was 107 million yuan, a decrease of 13.74% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.96 yuan per share, totaling 43.03 million yuan, which represents 40.06% of the net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [1]. Market and Business Segment Analysis - The overall film market in China has not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, with total box office revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 at 34.77 billion yuan, down 23.8% year-on-year [2]. - The company's cinema operations reported a box office of 366 million yuan, a decline of 29.6%, with a market share of 1.05% [2]. - The company is set to release several new projects, including "Good Things" and "Table for Two," which are expected to boost future revenues [2][3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 859 million yuan, 1.168 billion yuan, and 1.425 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 36%, and 22% respectively [4][5]. - Net profit projections for the same period are set at 139 million yuan, 236 million yuan, and 364 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 9.65%, 69.74%, and 54.19% [4][5].