wanhua(600309) 长城证券·2024-11-06 11:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanhua Chemical, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [18]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 is under short-term pressure due to falling product prices and maintenance of multiple facilities, but the expansion of MDI capacity is expected to enhance competitiveness in the polyurethane sector [2][9]. - The report anticipates a recovery in production levels following the completion of maintenance on relevant facilities, which should positively impact the polyurethane segment [2][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be CNY 197.41 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.6%. Net profit is expected to decline by 8.7% to CNY 15.35 billion [9]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 147.60 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, while net profit was CNY 11.09 billion, a decrease of 12.67% [1][9]. - In Q3 2024, revenue was CNY 50.54 billion, up 12.48% year-on-year, but net profit fell 29.41% year-on-year to CNY 2.92 billion [1][9]. Production and Sales Data - In Q3 2024, the production volumes for the polyurethane, petrochemical, and new materials segments were 1.38 million tons, 1.30 million tons, and 450,000 tons, respectively, with significant declines in production due to maintenance [2]. - Sales volumes for the same segments were 1.41 million tons, 1.32 million tons, and 500,000 tons, showing mixed results with a slight increase in polyurethane sales [2]. Price Trends - The average prices for key products in Q3 2024 showed a decline for pure MDI and TDI, while prices for polymer MDI increased slightly due to improved demand in specific markets [3]. - The average price for pure benzene was CNY 8,442 per ton, up 13.06% year-on-year, while other petrochemical products experienced varied price changes [4][3]. Cash Flow and Financial Ratios - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 19.30 billion, an increase of 12.65% year-on-year, while investment cash flow was negative at CNY -30.62 billion [7]. - The report highlights a rise in accounts receivable by 28.14% year-on-year, indicating potential liquidity concerns [7]. Capacity Expansion - Wanhua Chemical is expanding its MDI capacity with a new project in Fujian, increasing annual capacity to 1.5 million tons, which is expected to strengthen its market position in the polyurethane sector [8].