SF Holding(002352) 光大证券·2024-11-06 11:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SF Holding (002352 SZ) [1][3] Core Views - SF Holding achieved revenue of 206 861 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9 44%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 7 617 billion yuan, up 21 59% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue reached 72 451 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12 07%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 2 810 billion yuan, up 34 59% year-on-year [1] - The company's express delivery volume in Q3 2024 reached 3 229 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 14 37% [1] - SF Holding announced a special dividend plan of 10 yuan per 10 shares and a mid-term dividend plan of 4 yuan per 10 shares, with total dividends expected to reach 6 72 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin in Q3 2024 was 14 14%, an increase of 2 16 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Operating cash flow in Q3 2024 reached 8 83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23 5% [1] - The company's sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios in the first three quarters of 2024 were 1 1%, 6 5%, 0 9%, and 0 7% respectively, showing a stable or declining trend [1] Business Segments - The express logistics segment revenue increased by 7 57% year-on-year in Q3 2024, driven by improved service competitiveness and expansion into new customer groups and business scenarios [1] - The supply chain and international segment revenue grew by 27 22% year-on-year in Q3 2024, benefiting from rising international shipping rates and increased air freight demand [1] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts SF Holding's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 10 33 billion yuan, 11 32 billion yuan (down 7 3%), and 13 48 billion yuan (down 4 2%) respectively [1] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is expected to be 21x, 20x, and 16x respectively [2] - The company's ROE (diluted) for 2024-2026 is projected to be 10 40%, 10 60%, and 11 64% respectively [2] Market Data - SF Holding's total market capitalization is 221 978 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 4 816 billion shares [3] - The stock's 52-week high and low prices are 49 38 yuan and 32 41 yuan respectively [3] - The stock's 3-month turnover rate is 28 82% [3]