NORINCO International(000065) 国泰君安·2024-11-06 14:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [5] Core Views - The company's net profit growth of 15.9% in Q3 2024 aligns with expectations, with future growth anticipated from the commencement of the Bangladesh coal-fired power project and the initiation of the Bosnia solar project [2][3] - The report forecasts stable growth in the Mongolian coal business, contributing to sustained profit increases [2] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was 14.122 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.48% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 758 million yuan, an increase of 9.7% [3] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was -455 million yuan, compared to -294 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [3] - The company plans to raise no more than 960 million yuan for the Bosnia solar project, with an expected internal rate of return of 17.74% and a payback period of 8.85 years [3] Earnings Forecast - The report revises the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 to 1.01, 1.10, and 1.21 yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [3] - The target price is adjusted to 16 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15.8 times for 2024 [3] Order and Project Updates - New signed contracts in Q3 2024 amounted to 787 million USD, a decline of 61.3% year-on-year, with a total of 14.367 billion USD in uncompleted orders as of September 2024 [3][14] - The company has made progress in various projects, including the completion of 96.1% of the EPC engineering for the Bangladesh coal-fired power station [3]