CNNP(601985) 国信证券·2024-11-06 16:49Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][5][16] Core Views - The company's performance has declined due to fluctuations in electricity generation and a decrease in electricity prices, with a year-on-year decline in net profit of 4.22% for the first three quarters of 2024 [1][8] - The company has received approval for the loading of the first batch of nuclear fuel for the Zhangzhou Unit 1, marking a significant step in its operational capacity [4][15] - The company is experiencing a decline in nuclear power generation primarily due to unit maintenance and external factors such as typhoons affecting operations [2][15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 569.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.60%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 89.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.22% [1][8] - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 195.45 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.47%, but a year-on-year decrease of 1.25% [1][8] Electricity Generation - The total electricity generation for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1603.88 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.70%, while nuclear power generation was 1356.38 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 2.74% [2][14] - The company’s renewable energy generation saw significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 48.19% [2][14] Pricing and Regulatory Developments - The pricing for the Fuzhou Units 5 and 6 has been set at 0.3932 yuan/kWh, which is part of the regulatory framework established by the National Development and Reform Commission [3][15] - The company is advancing its second phase of construction for the Zhangzhou nuclear power project, with significant milestones achieved recently [4][15] Profitability and Forecasts - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 111.0 billion yuan, 120.4 billion yuan, and 130.0 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 4% for 2024 [5][16] - The average price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 17.0, 15.7, and 14.5 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][16]