国投电力：业绩符合预期，拟定增引入社保并承诺55%分红

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a projected PE ratio of 16/14/13 times for 2024-2026 and a dividend yield of 3.54% in 2024 based on a 55% payout ratio [1] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 7.5/8.4/9.0 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%/12%/7% respectively [1] - The company plans to raise 7 billion yuan through a private placement to fund the construction of 3.4GW hydropower stations and has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 55% from 2024 to 2026 [6] - The company's Q3 2024 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 17.294 billion yuan and 2.834 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 6.87% and 4.38% respectively [7] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 56.712 billion yuan in 2023 to 67.902 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.71%/6.76%/5.10% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 6.705 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.964 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 11.32%/12.13%/7.11% [4] - The company's ROE is forecasted to rise from 11.35% in 2023 to 12.61% in 2026, while the net profit margin is expected to improve from 21.44% to 24.91% over the same period [8] Business Highlights - The company's hydropower generation in Q3 2024 reached 33.7 billion kWh, up 25% year-on-year, demonstrating the advantages of cascade scheduling despite reduced water inflow [5] - The company's wind power tariff in Q3 2024 was 0.453 yuan/kWh, down 0.004 yuan year-on-year, while the photovoltaic tariff was 0.459 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.154 yuan/kWh due to increased grid parity projects [5] - The company has 3.72GW of approved hydropower capacity and 4.13GW of approved thermal power capacity under construction, with a target of 17GW of new energy capacity by 2025 [6] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 17.29 in 2023 to 12.93 in 2026, while the P/B ratio is projected to decrease from 2.17 to 1.77 over the same period [8] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is forecasted to remain stable at 9 times from 2024 to 2026 [8] - The dividend yield is expected to increase from 3.18% in 2023 to 3.99% in 2026 [8]