山西汾酒：收入端表现略超预期，盈利端保持强竞争力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [5][14]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 reached 8.611 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.35%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.94 billion yuan, growing by 10.36% year-on-year [1]. - The product matrix shows strong interconnectivity and sales momentum, which are considered core competitive advantages, with healthy channel inventory laying a foundation for future growth [4]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 17% in 2024, followed by 13% in 2025 and 2026, with net profit growth of 20%, 15%, and 14% respectively [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue and net profit figures were 8.611 billion yuan and 2.94 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 11.35% and 10.36% [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 74.29%, slightly down by 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 34.11%, down by 0.29 percentage points [3]. - Operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 3.505 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 67.22% [3]. Product and Market Structure - In Q3 2024, the high-end liquor segment generated revenue of 6.188 billion yuan, growing by 6.74% year-on-year, while other liquor categories saw a revenue increase of 25.62% to 2.405 billion yuan [2]. - The provincial market remains a crucial support point, with provincial revenue reaching 3.506 billion yuan, up 12.12% year-on-year, while out-of-province revenue was 5.087 billion yuan, up 10.95% [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 37.235 billion yuan in 2024, 42.244 billion yuan in 2025, and 47.567 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 12.508 billion yuan, 14.356 billion yuan, and 16.329 billion yuan [7][8]. - The expected P/E ratios for the next three years are 21X, 18X, and 16X respectively [4].