Valin Steel(000932) 国泰君安·2024-11-06 17:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 111.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.77 billion yuan, down 56.86% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is expected to improve its dividend yield as capital expenditure pressures decrease, with a current dividend payout ratio of 31.29% and a dividend yield of 4.84%, ranking among the industry leaders [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: The company’s revenue is projected to be 160.8 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit forecasts adjusted to 2.85 billion yuan for 2024, 3.28 billion yuan for 2025, and 3.81 billion yuan for 2026 [3][4]. - Profitability Metrics: The gross margin and net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 were 6.97% and 1.59%, respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous year but still maintaining a relatively good level within the industry [3][5]. - Valuation: The target price is set at 6.13 yuan, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of approximately 0.73 for 2025, in line with comparable companies [3][12]. Product Development - The company is optimizing its product structure, with new high-value-added products expected to enhance profitability. The VAMA Phase II high-end automotive sheet project is expected to reach full production in 2024, adding 450,000 tons/year of galvanized capacity [3][4]. - The company has also launched a cold-rolled silicon steel project, which is anticipated to contribute to profitability as production ramps up [3][4]. Market Position - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 32.54 billion yuan, with a current share price of 4.71 yuan, reflecting a 52-week price range of 3.39 to 5.92 yuan [6][7]. - The company maintains a net asset value per share of 7.73 yuan, with a current price-to-net asset ratio of 0.6 [7]. Conclusion - The report indicates that despite current challenges, the company is positioned to enhance its profitability through product optimization and reduced capital expenditure, supporting a positive outlook for future performance [2][3][4].