BAOFENG ENERGY(600989) 长城证券·2024-11-06 17:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [15]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in its olefin production and sales, with the Inner Mongolia project set to commence production soon [1][7]. - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth driven by increased production capacity and favorable market conditions [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2024, the company reported revenue of 24.275 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.536 billion yuan, up 16.60% year-on-year [1]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 7.377 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.91% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 0.91% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.232 billion yuan, down 34.59% quarter-on-quarter and down 24.60% year-on-year [2]. Production and Sales Insights - The company’s polyethylene and polypropylene sales volumes in Q3 were 250,000 tons and 252,000 tons, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 27.9% and 53.0% due to the contribution from the Ningdong Phase III project [3]. - Average selling prices for polyethylene and polypropylene in Q3 were 7,023 yuan/ton and 6,806 yuan/ton, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% and an increase of 1.8%, respectively [3]. Cost and Project Development - The average procurement prices for raw coal, coking coal, and thermal coal decreased year-on-year by 10.0%, 11.1%, and 11.4%, respectively [4]. - The Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang olefin projects are progressing as planned, with the Inner Mongolia project expected to begin trial production soon [6][7]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 35.714 billion yuan, 54.278 billion yuan, and 58.164 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 6.739 billion yuan, 11.996 billion yuan, and 13.122 billion yuan [7]. - The expected EPS for the same years is 0.92 yuan, 1.64 yuan, and 1.79 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.5x, 9.8x, and 9.0x [7].